Is “merger mania” returning to the U.S. airline trade?
You actually may assume so after studying Monday’s Bloomberg News report, which said that United Airways CEO Scott Kirby apparently floated a blockbuster merger with American Airways to federal officers earlier this 12 months.
Whether or not such a deal is ever formally proposed (as there’d be intense regulatory scrutiny on combining two of the nation’s greatest world carriers), it is protected to say that the subject of airline mergers is again in full pressure.
It additionally prompts a glance again on the earlier wave of main airline mergers from 2005 to 2016, which helped form the present aggressive aviation panorama:
- US Airways-America West (2005)
- Delta Air Traces-Northwest Airways (2008)
- United Airways-Continental Airways (2010)
- Southwest Airways-AirTran Airways (2011)
- American Airways-US Airways (2014)
These offers dramatically lowered the variety of main airways within the U.S. — finally melding 9 completely different airways into simply 4. Within the course of, storied manufacturers like Northwest, Continental and US Airways fell by the wayside. This left 4 supersized airways (American, Delta, United and Southwest) answerable for roughly 80% of the U.S. market.
By 2015, most individuals did not anticipate any additional airline consolidation. Nonetheless, in 2016, Alaska Airways managed to finish another main deal, outbidding JetBlue to amass Virgin America.
However, quick ahead to 2026, and authorities and trade leaders now appear to see the chance for a brand new spherical of U.S. airline mergers.
Even earlier than studies started linking United to American, merger discuss had grown amid skyrocketing gas costs squeezing the industry.
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Delta CEO Ed Bastian famous final week that top oil costs had been traditionally a catalyst for trade consolidation.
He cited excessive gas costs as a driver for that final main spherical of airline mergers (together with Delta’s personal merger with Northwest in 2008, in addition to the United-Continental, Southwest-AirTran and American-US Airways offers).
“I anticipate increased gas costs will trigger rather more vital structural reform than we have seen over this era,” Bastian stated. “There’s quite a few enterprise fashions that, I believe, their homeowners are going to start out questioning whether or not they proceed to commit capital to.”
It had already been taking place on a smaller scale.
Alaska Airways announced in 2023 it will purchase and merge with Hawaiian Airways, setting the stage for Alaska to hitch American, Delta and United because the nation’s newest global carrier.
Leisure service Allegiant is within the midst of its personal merger with niche carrier Sun Country.
And JetBlue is reportedly shopping itself for a merger or acquisition, which probably would’ve been the main prize within the trade till the United-American report emerged this week.
Even Washington, D.C. — traditionally one of many hardest audiences concerning this matter — has signaled openness.
Bastian’s feedback, for instance, got here simply two days after U.S. Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy said on CNBC that he sees “room” for extra airline consolidation.
All of this merger discuss comes as quite a few U.S. airways battle financially, and at the least two are thought of takeover targets. JetBlue not too long ago employed advisers to discover a possible merger with both Alaska Airways, Southwest or United, Semafor reported in March. And Spirit Airways actually stays a takeover goal because it continues to function below Chapter 11 chapter safety.
Authorities assist
The Division of Justice offered the primary signal of assist in March when it ended its antitrust assessment of Allegiant Air’s takeover of Sun Country Airlines early with no objections. Whereas the airways had little overlap and collectively characterize round simply 2% of U.S. home seats, the swift approval signaled a lightweight regulatory contact from the Trump administration.
The Biden administration blocked the combination of JetBlue and Spirit in 2024, and successfully sued to end JetBlue’s Northeast Alliance with American Airways in 2023.
On CNBC, Duffy did say that, whereas Trump “likes to see massive offers occur,” a merger by one of many “bigger” airways would require them to “peel off a few of their belongings.” (“Bigger” airways probably refers to American, Delta, Southwest and United, which every management a few fifth of the U.S. market.)
The final main airline merger — Alaska’s takeover of Hawaiian, which closed in 2024 — is nearing its closing main passenger-facing milestone when Hawaiian moves to Alaska’s reservations system April 22.
The following massive airline deal
Nobody is aware of simply what the subsequent deal may happen. Within the historical past of airline mergers, the obvious combos will not be at all times those that happen.
That actually can be the case with any United-American deal. However, once more, such a combo can be thought of the longest of lengthy photographs if previous precedent holds.
Elsewhere, some airline mergers could be extra probably candidates than others.
Frontier Airways is extensively seen as essentially the most appropriate companion for Spirit given their comparable ultra-low-cost enterprise fashions and complementary route networks; Frontier is extra concentrated within the western U.S., whereas Spirit has a bigger presence within the Detroit, Florida and New York markets.
A mixed Frontier-Spirit would have a roughly 7% share of U.S. home seats based mostly on 2025 numbers, schedule information from aviation analytics agency Cirium exhibits. It might be the fifth-largest share, surpassing Alaska-Hawaiian’s 6% share.
Frontier has tried and did not merge with Spirit at the least twice. It was outbid by JetBlue in 2022 in a deal that finally failed and was rejected in 2025.
A possible JetBlue deal is extra fascinating.
Whereas its recent partnership with United has some pundits pontificating a few potential JetBlue-United merger, others have recommended an Alaska-JetBlue combo would make sense. And whereas these mixed carriers’ networks would instantly make it a participant on each coasts, it is questionable whether or not Alaska may take up one other airline whereas within the midst of integrating operations with Hawaiian.
One other view comes from Courtney Miller at Visible Strategy Analytics, who wrote earlier in April that he views a Southwest-JetBlue merger as essentially the most appropriate when weighing fleet, community and antitrust issues. He famous current chatter that both an Alaska-JetBlue mixture or a United-JetBlue mixture even have advantage.
“If Alaska would see restricted profit however virtually sure [regulatory] approval, and United would see large profit however probably rejection, Southwest simply form of works,” he wrote (previous to information a few potential United-American combo that might break with previous regulatory precedent). “Good profit and a really sturdy chance of approval.”
A mixed Southwest-JetBlue would surpass American as the most important home airline with a 24% share of seats based mostly on 2025 numbers, Cirium information exhibits.
And whereas a Southwest-JetBlue deal does have points — for one, Southwest flies an all-Boeing 737 fleet and JetBlue an all-Airbus fleet — it will obtain at the least two of Southwest’s strategic objectives: long-haul international flying to Europe and lounges.
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