Which drivers will fall in Round of 12 for NASCAR ...

The second spherical of the 2025 NASCAR Cup playoffs takes the highest degree of the game by way of New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and can finish with an elimination race on the Charlotte Roval.

Alex Bowman, Shane van Gisbergen, Austin Dillon, and Josh Berry have did not advance, and whereas Motorsport.com did not get 100% in our first-round exit predictions, that will not cease us from giving it our greatest go for the Spherical of 12.

Senior NASCAR editor Matt Weaver got 50% correct as he predicted Berry and Dillon’s early eliminations, but both Ross Chastain and Austin Cindric did manage to move on. Longtime news manager Nick DeGroot also got 50%, correctly picking Berry and Dillon, but incorrectly naming Tyler Reddick and Cindric.

The No. 2 Penske driver proved each of us flawed, transferring on even after his Ford Mustang went up in flames in the closing laps of the Bristol cutoff race.

Matt Weaver’s Spherical of 12 eliminations

Chase Elliott: That is the spherical the place there may be at all times one actual shock elimination. However the factor is, by Elliott’s own summation, this isn’t a championship caliber program right now. That does not imply they cannot flip it on. Actually, it’s simply as probably they win the championship as it’s they get eradicated. New Hampshire goes to be actually essential for the Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 staff as a result of they contended for the win at flat observe Gateway, however that can also be a distinct guidelines package deal so it’s an open query which Elliott exhibits up.

Austin Cindric: There isn’t something significantly flawed with how the Penske No. 2 staff is performing proper now however that is the spherical the place getting stage factors each time and each race, whereas additionally difficult for top-5s is vital if you begin beneath the cutline. The season-long physique of labor simply isn’t there proper now to counsel they’re, however Cindric can also be a Penske automotive — surviving this spherical could also be an extended shot.

Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Photograph by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Photographs

Ross Chastain: Much like Cindric, the season lengthy physique of labor isn’t there, however you additionally form of anticipate a win out of nowhere within the playoffs yearly. It will be fortuitous for the Trackhouse Racing No. 1 staff if it comes whereas they’re nonetheless championship eligible. It is a staff has discovered sufficient to advance to the ultimate 4 earlier than, so that you by no means low cost expertise, however that is simply the knife to a gunfight stage of the playoffs.

Tyler Reddick: The Southern 500 was a much-needed increase for the 23XI Racing No. 45 staff however they’re nonetheless not acting at their 2024 ranges and they’re beginning this spherical on the very backside of the pylon. On one hand, Toyota is exhibiting probably the most pace proper now however then again, Reddick and Billy Scott simply aren’t capitalizing on it repeatedly. Their first spherical efficiency received’t be sufficient this time round.

Nick DeGroot’s Spherical of 12 eliminations

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing Toyota

Photograph by: Sean Gardner / Getty Photographs

Tyler Reddick: Reddick is an odd case. He received the common season title in 2024, and made all of it the way in which to the Championship 4, however he’s now the one winless driver left within the 2025 title combat. Outdoors of a stellar exhibiting within the Southern 500, the No. 45 has been far off from the place he was only one 12 months in the past. If not for that exhibiting at Darlington, the Spherical of 16 may have been the top of his playoff run. Whereas his teammate continues to impress, Reddick hasn’t proven us a lot when it comes to pace.

Austin Cindric: Most believed Cindric can be a first-round exit, so it already looks like he’s on borrowed time right here. If he can show us flawed but once more and transfer on into the Spherical of 8, that might be unbelievable, however the info simply do not help it occurring. He has 5 prime tens this 12 months, and a mean end of twentieth simply is not going to chop it on this spherical. 

Joey Logano, Staff Penske Ford

Photograph by: Jonathan Bachman – Getty Photographs

Joey Logano: It isn’t an even-numbered 12 months, so Logano merely cannot win the title for those who consider in popular culture numerology. However in all seriousness, this will probably be a troublesome spherical for the three-time champion. Logano is just not a fantastic street course racer, so the Roval will probably be a problem. Actually, he was eradicated on this spherical one 12 months in the past — earlier than a post-race disqualification resurrected his title run. Logano is excellent at getting quite a bit out of his tools and he needs to be first rate sufficient at NHMS and Kansas, however he begins out beneath the cutline. Logano must acquire floor on some very quick vehicles simply forward of him, and whereas I do not anticipate him to go down and not using a combat, it will probably be it for the No. 22 this 12 months.

Kyle Larson: Now, this may be a shocker, however Hendrick Motorsports simply have not been themselves thus far within the playoffs. They already misplaced Alex Bowman, and I consider they may lose one other driver on this spherical. He has a 24-point buffer to play with, however Larson completed nineteenth, twelfth, and thirty second within the first spherical, and he hasn’t received a race since Could. As we noticed at Bristol, Larson has additionally been making some unforced errors in latest months, and one other wreck may simply finish his playoffs.

Who will barely advance?

Matt says Joey Logano: That is simply what he does. Positive, that is an odd-numbered season so his last 4 years solely come on even-numbered campaigns however that’s not respectable statistical evaluation. Till Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe discover race successful pace once more, which might be any week now as a result of there’s a physique of labor to counsel they may, Logano will do what’s requested of him to maintain the battle going even on the expense of a weekly battle. It is likely to be right down to a few factors on the Roval however the Penske 22 will proceed to attract the ire of followers who will as soon as once more decry his lack of championship caliber statistics.

Nick says Ross Chastain: The entire info level to the Spherical of 12 being the top of Chastain’s playoff journey, however the one factor stopping me from selecting him is the tracks that make up this spherical. He received at Kansas one 12 months in the past, and people varieties of 1.5-mile tracks are the place Chastain shines. There’s additionally a street course on this spherical, and his teammate is none aside from Shane van Gisbergen. That is going to be invaluable, however Chastain himself has certified inside the highest 5 for 3 of the final 4 street programs, which may set him up effectively to attain a whole lot of stage factors on the Roval. His weakest observe will probably be NHMS, and but, he scored a prime ten there final 12 months — and let’s not neglect, Chastain is one in every of simply three drivers who received to participate on this summer time’s tire take a look at on the Magic Mile.