Our annual survey of journey sentiment holds a couple of surprises in 2026.
When 2025 started, airways had been warning of a drop in bookings — particularly behind the aircraft. That led to profitability issues or schedule reductions from main U.S. carriers. However ultimately, 2025 turned out to be a fairly good 12 months for airways and the journey trade as an entire, regardless of a steep drop in worldwide guests to the U.S.
The variety of passengers that flew in 2025 (over 906 million) barely eclipsed 2024 totals, based on Transportation Safety Administration knowledge.
And in the course of the last months of 2025, the spike in journey was extra notable: About 1.9% extra passengers handed by TSA checkpoints between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1 (the fourth quarter) than in 2024. That included an all-time record of 3 million-plus flyers on Nov. 30, the Sunday after Thanksgiving.
To date this 12 months, the outlook has remained pretty optimistic. We have seen airways including fascinating, new routes, and two of the highest U.S. carriers have predicted a surge in income this 12 months.
Equally, latest polling commissioned by TPG from YouGov reveals little decline in journey sentiment. The truth is, many People plan to journey extra this 12 months, based on our findings.
There are some regarding traits within the knowledge, too: The quantity of people that will journey much less and spend much less on that journey is ticking up 12 months over 12 months.
We even have some fascinating, new polling on elite standing to share with you — however let’s begin with journey sentiment.
Most People are planning to journey the identical or greater than final 12 months
The brand new YouGov survey discovered that simply over half of People (56%) plan to journey extra or the identical quantity in 2026 than they did prior to now two years.
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Practically all (94%) of these planning to journey in 2026 (i.e., “vacationers”) intend to journey domestically, whereas 36% plan to journey internationally.
The truth is, a few quarter of People (24%) say they plan to journey extra in 2026 than they did prior to now two years, whereas 32% plan to journey about the identical.
But it surely’s not all excellent news in relation to traveler sentiment.
Fewer folks report they’ll journey this 12 months than final, and extra report they’ll spend much less on journey this 12 months.
13% of People say they’ll journey lower than they did prior to now few years, whereas 19% of vacationers say they’ll spend much less on journey this 12 months.
That is up a number of share factors since our final journey sentiment survey back in May 2025. Do not forget that in Could of final 12 months, many shoppers had been very apprehensive in regards to the state of the economic system. So, it is a bit regarding that fewer persons are reporting they’ll journey now — positively one thing to look at because the 12 months rolls on.
The significance of elite standing
TPG and YouGov additionally acquired a pulse on elite standing, as many people at TPG debate the query, “Is elite standing price it anymore?”
In an period of fewer upgrades, longer improve lists, fewer perks, dearer mileage redemptions and common devaluations, it is a query we’re all grappling with. It additionally comes as airline standing has gotten more durable and dearer to earn.
We requested whether or not vacationers at present have elite standing with any airline (e.g., AAdvantage Gold within the American Airlines AAdvantage program, Silver Medallion within the Delta SkyMiles program, Premium Silver within the United MileagePlus program, and so forth.). A whopping 73% of vacationers reported having no airline elite standing, whereas solely 9% have some form of elite standing. I am prepared to wager, although, that if we polled solely TPG readers, these numbers can be fairly totally different.
We additionally requested, “Occupied with airline elite standing advantages, how, if in any respect, do you suppose they’ve modified prior to now two years?”
Of these surveyed, 31% of flyers with elite standing stated elite standing advantages have improved, whereas 59% stated they’ve stayed the identical or gotten worse. That is not what I anticipated, as the advantages of elite standing proceed to be watered down (fewer upgrades are given, mileage redemptions are dearer and so forth).
We additionally particularly requested in regards to the worth of factors and miles over time, which aligned higher with expectations. Solely 8% of all flyers stated the worth had elevated prior to now few years; 25% stated the worth stayed the identical, and 18% stated it had dropped.
That is a warning signal for airways and banks that rely on shoppers to maintain shopping for into the worth proposition of incomes factors and miles.
There may be some excellent news for 2026. The key airways have left their present incomes standing thresholds intact after elevating necessities over the previous a number of years. Delta Air Traces raised its Delta Medallion standing necessities by steep margins a couple of years in the past, and United Airlines raised its earning requirements simply final 12 months.
Solely time will inform if this stays the case as we get additional into 2026.
Backside line
It is an enchanting time in journey, with few indicators of letup in demand. Our new TPG and YouGov polling finds that almost all People plan to journey as a lot or much more than they did prior to now few years. Nonetheless, there are some warnings within the knowledge, and you may wager we’ll be watching rigorously for any indicators of a journey slowdown — and what that would imply for you as a traveler.
Associated studying:
The Factors Man commissioned YouGov Plc to conduct the survey. All figures, except in any other case acknowledged, are from YouGov Plc. The full pattern dimension was 2,503 U.S. adults, amongst whom 1,728 plan to journey in 2026. Fieldwork was undertaken between Jan. 9 and 13. The survey was carried out on-line and meets rigorous high quality requirements. It gathered a nonprobability-based pattern and employed demographic quotas and weights to raised align the survey pattern with the broader U.S. inhabitants.
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