The Minnesota Timberwolves are on the ropes trailing 2-0 to the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder within the 2025 NBA Western Convention finals, making Recreation 3 on Saturday an all-important matchup with a third-straight loss seemingly sealing their destiny.
Listed here are 4 professional participant prop picks for this showdown on the Goal Middle, together with an OVER on a mixture prop for Thunder All-Star Jalen Williams at plus cash (+106) on Could 24.
Jalen Williams OVER 11.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Timberwolves (+106 at FanDuel)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
It is not fairly the love affair of persistently wagering on the OVER for Alex Caruso 3-pointers made props (which we’re avoiding right here right this moment), however the mixture of rebounds and assists for Williams has paid dividends each actually and figuratively with a dependable hit price over this latest stretch. The 24-year-old wing is averaging 5.9 boards and 5.6 dimes by way of 13 postseason video games to this point, which is up from the 5.3 and 5.1 he put up throughout the common season, respectively.
Most significantly, although, is that Williams has gone OVER numerous 11.5 in every of the final 5 video games courting again to Recreation 5 towards the Denver Nuggets within the second spherical after failing to take action even as soon as within the eight playoff outings prior. He is had not less than eight rebounds in every of the primary two video games versus Minnesota and ended with precisely 5 assists every time, as properly.
Chet Holmgren UNDER 8.5 Rebounds vs. Timberwolves (-114 at FanDuel)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
There have been 5 events within the seven-game collection with Denver that each one 7-foot-1 of Chet Holmgren grabbed 11 or extra rebounds in a recreation. That is to not counsel he could not probably replicate these numbers towards the Timberwolves, however by way of two house video games, Holmgren hasn’t completed with greater than seven and simply recorded 4 throughout 31 minutes in Oklahoma Metropolis’s 118-103 victory on Wednesday. Which means he is totalled as many boards in his final two appearances mixed as he did within the finale towards the Nuggets on Could 18.
This should not come as a shock, although, as a result of courting again to November 28, 2023, Holmgren has gone UNDER Saturday’s prop of 8.5 rebounds seven of the final eight instances he is competed towards Minnesota. There are solely seven groups wherein he is averaging fewer than seven boards towards for his profession and the Timberwolves are one in every of them (6.7). Oddsmakers have each the OVER and UNDER right here with equivalent worth on the time of writing, and there is rather more rationale for leaning in the direction of the UNDER in Recreation 3 on the street.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 7.5 Factors vs. Thunder (-104 at FanDuel)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
The one prop of mine which linked in Recreation 2 was fortunately the one I used to be most assured in, which was backup guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker going OVER 6.5 factors at +105. He blew that quantity out of the water with 17 factors with three triples coming off the bench in 25 minutes for his second-highest scoring output of the playoffs behind his 20-point outburst in Recreation 2 towards the Golden State Warriors.
Regardless of Mike Conley being a gradual presence within the beginning lineup and realizing how Minnesota is producing a staggering 51.2 extra factors per 100 possessions when he is on the ground, there could come a time sooner relatively than later the place head coach Chris Finch must make a change to his beginning lineup and change the veteran with Alexander-Walker, which is without doubt one of the few logical changes to be made. The Thunder personal what’s simply the most effective protection of any staff left standing, which additionally rang true earlier than the playoffs even obtained underway, however the Timberwolves are solely averaging 95.5 factors by way of two video games and wish a jolt in some type to battle again. Enter NAW, who ought to simply topple 7.5 factors whether or not that change is made or not.
Jaden McDaniels OVER 13.5 Factors vs. Thunder (-106 at FanDuel)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
Of the eight gamers on Minnesota who’ve suited up for every of the primary two video games, solely Jaden McDaniels is taking pictures higher than 50 p.c from the sector (55 p.c). He is additionally one in every of simply two gamers (Julius Randle) with a 3-point effectivity higher than 40 p.c (45.5), and his 29 whole factors rank third on the roster.
McDaniels is placing up 17.6 factors in 5 postseason house appearances already in comparison with 13.7 in seven street outings. Function gamers are likely to carry out higher in entrance of a house crowd anyway, so his improved numbers on the Goal Middle should not catch anybody off guard. He is gone OVER 13.5 factors in 4 of the final six video games and 4 of the final 5 versus Oklahoma Metropolis particularly, which bodes properly for the way Recreation 3 will form out.
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